Manila, the pulse of the nation, in November is calm, balmy even, for the rains have not yet come to wash the grit and smog that accompanies a city of several million people and vehicles. It seems though that the populace are waiting for signs. Great sign readers, the Filipinos quickly dismissed the slight rise of the peso upon the news that FPJ (actor Fernando Poe, Jr.) declared his intention to be one of the “presidentiables”. In a field of about five candidates, including a sitting president, GMA (Gloria Macapagal Arroyo), FPJ effectively dilutes the votes for the other four and more critically for GMA who will need a mandate as a vote of confidence over her current governance. Immediately, the rumor mills were active (remember that under dictator Marcos, rumor-mongering was a crime). One intriguing rumor merits description here – that FPJ will eventual step down (or be forced to step down) so his vice president can assume the presidency — a repeat in other words, of the gray constitutionality that surrounded GMA’s assumption of the presidency of Estrada who was ousted by EDSA 2. EDSA 2 was a repeat of EDSA 1 or “People’s Power” which brought Marcos’ downfall and exile and eventually Cory Aquino’s presidency that was ushered in by a army mutiny. Similarly, in EDSA 2, GMA was ushered in by an army that deserted Estrada. The mutiny last October (2003) would seem like a poorly orchestrated dress rehearsal for EDSA 3. So now, Philippine presidential succession has evolved a new model and one with vague constitutionality. If one were to believe the rumors, the sign readers who watch with great anticipation who will be chosen as FPJ’s running VP mate will confirm the plausibility of the model. Now that the president-able ranks from the major political party’s have thinned out to include Raul Roco, (GMA and FPJ are the other two), the remaining presidentiables will have to settle for a VP position. On first blush this seems like a ego-busting second-class vice-president candidacy, but if one believes in the aforementioned model that the rumor is milling, the presidency is really only an EDSA version 3 away.
-Part I
